While USA president Biden has shared little about his plan for the Arctic, many policymakers agree that a Biden presidency will likely place a renewed emphasis on diplomacy and cooperation on Arctic issues.

“ President Biden, has already announced that the United States will rejoin the Paris Agreement and presumably will once again become one of the leaders in supporting efforts to combat climate change at the international level,” said Ambassador David Balton, former Ambassador for Oceans and Fisheries at the U.S. State Department. “I would expect to see the United States pushing for steps to be taken in the Arctic,” he said, “to address problems of climate change, you know, more aggressively than in the last four years.”

A renewed focus on climate will affect U.S. policy on sustainable development in the Arctic, including economic activities like drilling and mining as well as climate-friendly investments such as green energy, said Marie-Anne Coninsx, former Ambassador for the European Union. The United States is also likely to place greater emphasis on environmental protection and sustainable development. The new U.S. administration’s most important contribution in the Arctic will be the reduction of climate emissions through investments in research and innovative new technologies, even if it doesn’t mention the Arctic, said Sverdrup.

Great Power Competition

The Biden administration will likely follow in the footsteps of the Trump administration and continue to discourage Russian militarization of the Arctic, said Balton.

Arctic security is very much a byproduct of tensions elsewhere, said Sverdrup. Great power competition has the possibility of moving into the region; what happens in the Ukraine could spill into the Arctic, or rivalry with China could unfold in the Arctic.
There may be an increase of security tensions as both the United States and Russia continue to conduct military exercises in the High North, utilize aggressive rhetoric, and accuse each other of Arctic militarization, said Andrey Todorov, Research Fellow at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations. The United States will continue to make an effort to closely align with Arctic allies to prevent this type of Russian behavior and reestablish a security equilibrium.
At least vis-à-vis interests in the Arctic, the Biden administration may not view Chinese engagement in the Arctic in quite the same way as the outgoing Trump administration. It is possible that the “tone and temperature” toward China will change, and the Biden administration may become less aggressive in pushing back against China.

Multilateralism and International Cooperation

Hoping United States will promote efforts to strengthen the international governance regime for the Arctic and strengthen ties with allies and partners in the Arctic, noting that there is still much work to be done. Ties have, frankly, gotten somewhat frayed in the last four years.
I think that the United States will, both in the Arctic and elsewhere, place more emphasis on working through multilateral institutions and regimes like the Arctic Council. A commitment to multilateralism and a willingness to cooperate with other states on tackling global changes will bring the United States closer to the other Arctic nations.
Russia would benefit from this reengaged approach and willingness to cooperate, especially with Russia assuming the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2021. Progress on Arctic relations, especially with the Arctic Council under a Russian chairmanship, could become more ambitious with U.S. cooperation under the Biden administration. The question remains whether Biden will compartmentalize issues and collaborate on some pressing areas while not compromising on others.