– 2026. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Vignoli, D., Guetto, R., Maitino, M. L., & Ravagli, L. Positive effects of his and her income on first births: Couple-level evidence from longitudinal tax data in Italy. European Sociological Review. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcag021

Abstract: This study adopts a couple-level approach to assess whether higher-income women (men) experience lower (higher) fertility due to opportunity costs and conventional gender norms or whether income pooling within couples facilitates parenthood. We test the well-established gendered relationship between income and fertility in Italy, a country historically known for its division of family roles along traditional gender lines. Utilizing longitudinal tax data (2003–2022; n = 8,039,372 person-years) from Tuscany—a region representing Italian-average levels of economic development and gender equality—we apply discrete-time event-history analyses. Results show that higher income for both men and women increases the likelihood of the first birth. Married couples in which both partners are high earners (low earners) are the most (least) likely to become parents, while hypergamous/hypogamous couples lie in between. These findings challenge traditional sex-specialization models and support the view that couples’ income pooling is a key factor for parenthood, which might compensate for weak public policies through private outsourcing. The positive income–fertility association grew slightly stronger in the late 2010s, suggesting rising economic prerequisites to union formation and parenthood. Overall, the findings highlight the economic stratification of parenthood in a context of high childlessness and rising costs of having a child.

– 2025. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Espadafor, M. C. Teacher Bias by Student SES or Measurement Error in Ability? A Cautionary Tale for Observational Studies. Social Science Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2025.103254

Abstract: Teachers act as judges of academic merit, but unfair evaluations beyond students' true abilities may perpetuate inequality based on socioeconomic status (SES). This article investigates if student SES biases teacher grades and track recommendations, after accounting for measurement error (test scores) and omitted variables (noncognitive skills) in ability—a widespread issue that can lead to overestimating teacher bias in observational studies. Using the German NEPS panel across elementary education, we seek to identify student ability through various cognitive (standardised test scores) and noncognitive (effort) measures, along with an instrumental variable (IV) design. We also examine heterogeneity across the ability distribution to test whether teacher bias is most pronounced among low performers. First, after approximating latent student ability with the IV approach and adjusting for noncognitive skills, the residual effect of student SES drops by over 40 %. This reduction indicates that estimates of teacher bias are substantially inflated when relying solely on snapshot test scores. Second, despite this reduction, the effect size of student SES remains considerable at 6 % of a standard deviation for GPA and five percentage points for track recommendations. Third, residual SES effects are disproportionately seen among low-to-average-performing students, suggesting that high-SES parents use compensatory strategies to influence teacher assessments. We discuss the theoretical and methodological implications of our findings for estimating and interpreting teacher bias as a mechanism of educational reproduction in observational research.

– 2025. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Salas-Rojo, P., Vidal, G., and Villani, D. (2025). Wealth and Income Stratification by Social Class in Five European Countries. Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-025-03532-x *Winner of the Aldi Hagenaars Memorial Award for the best Luxembourg Wealth Study Working Paper (2024). Slides.

Abstract: Wealth is a central determinant of life chances and intergenerational status persistence in modern societies. Despite increasing attention, sociologists traditionally overlooked its role in class-based economic disparities, while most economists focused on the elites’ accumulation. This article combines sociological and economic perspectives to test whether big occupational classes, the most standardised and operationalisable approach, depict the wealth distribution. Drawing from the Luxembourg Wealth Study (2002–2018) in five European countries, we explore (1) how wealth is distributed and stratified by big occupational classes over time and cross-nationally and (2) to what extent classes account for aggregate wealth inequality trends compared with income. Unlike bold claims on class 'death' or 'decomposition', inequality of outcomes in wealth accumulation is firmly rooted across big occupational classes in contemporary capitalism, potentially harming social mobility in future generations. Still, occupational classes better capture between-group income inequality and stratification than wealth, emphasising the importance of economic resources beyond labour market attachment. Against the backdrop of previous research and our findings, we discuss the role of wealth in contemporary class analysis.

– 2024. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Pañeda-Fernández, I., Salazar, L. and Castaño Muñoz, J. (2024). Teacher Bias in Assessments by Student Ascribed Status: A Factorial Experiment on Discrimination in Education, Sociological Science, 11: 743-776. http://dx.doi.org/10.15195/v11.a27; Replication package; PAP

Abstract: Teachers are the evaluators of academic merit. Identifying if their assessments are fair or biased by student-ascribed status is critical for equal opportunity but empirically challenging, with mixed previous findings. We test status characteristics beliefs, statistical discrimination, and cultural capital theories with a pre-registered factorial experiment on a large sample of Spanish pre-service teachers (n = 1,717). This design causally identifies, net of ability, the impact of student-ascribed characteristics on teacher short- and long-term assessments, improving prior studies’ theory testing, confounding, and power. Findings unveil teacher bias in an essay grading task favoring girls and highbrow cultural capital, aligning with status characteristics and cultural capital theories. Results on teachers’ long-term expectations indicate statistical discrimination against boys, migrant origin, and working-class students under uncertain information. Unexpectedly, ethnic discrimination changes from teachers favoring native origin in long-term expectations to migrant origin in short-term evaluations, suggesting compensatory grading. We discuss the complex roots of discrimination in teacher assessments as an educational (in)equality mechanism.

– 2024. Ghirardi, G., Gil-Hernández, C.J., Bernardi, F., Van Bergen, E. and Demange, P. (2024). Interaction of family SES with children’s genetic propensity for cognitive and noncognitive skills: No evidence of the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis for educational outcomes, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2024.100960 *Young Scholar Award of the Italian Society of Economic Sociology for the Best Article; Replication package; PAP

Abstract: This study examines the role of genes and environments in predicting educational outcomes. We test the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis, suggesting that enriched environments enable genetic potential to unfold, and the compensatory advantage hypothesis, proposing that low genetic endowments have less impact on education for children from high socioeconomic status (SES) families. We use a pre-registered design with Netherlands Twin Register data (426 ≤ Nindividuals ≤ 3875). We build polygenic indexes (PGIs) for cognitive and noncognitive skills to predict seven educational outcomes from childhood to adulthood across three designs (between-family, within-family, and trio) accounting for different confounding sources, totalling 42 analyses. Cognitive PGIs, noncognitive PGIs, and parental education positively predict educational outcomes. Providing partial support for the compensatory hypothesis, 39/42 PGI × SES interactions are negative, with 7 reaching statistical significance under Romano-Wolf and 3 under the more conservative Bonferroni multiple testing corrections (p-value < 0.007). In contrast, the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis lacks empirical support, with just 2 non-significant and 1 significant (not surviving Romano-Wolf) positive interactions. Overall, we emphasise the need for future replication studies in larger samples. Our findings demonstrate the value of merging social-stratification and behavioural-genetic theories to better understand the intricate interplay between genetic factors and social contexts.

– 2023. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Vidal, G., and Torrejón, S. (2023). Technological Change, Tasks, and Class Inequality in Europe, Work, Employment & Society. https://doi.org/10.1177/09500170231155783

Abstract: Neo-Weberian occupational class schemas, rooted in industrial-age employment relations, are a standard socio-economic position measure in social stratification. Previous research highlighted Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarero (EGP)-based schemas’ difficulties in keeping up with changing labour markets, but few tested alternative explanations. This article explores how job tasks linked to technological change and rising economic inequality might confound the links between employment relations, classes, and life chances. Using the European Working Conditions Survey covering the European Union (EU)-27 countries, this article analyses over time and by gender: 1) the task distribution between social classes; and 2) whether tasks predict class membership and life chances. Decomposition analyses suggest that tasks explain class membership and wage inequality better than theorised employment relations. However, intellectual/routine tasks and digital tools driving income inequality are well-stratified by occupational classes. Therefore, this article does not argue for a class (schema) revolution but for fine-tuning the old instrument to portray market inequalities in the digital age.

– 2022. Brannigan, R., Gil-Hernández, C.J., McEvoy, O., Cronin, F., Stanistreet, D., and Layte, R. (2022). Digital engagement and its association with adverse psychiatric symptoms: A longitudinal cohort study utilizing latent class analysis, Computers in Human Behavior, 133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2022.107290

Abstract:

Objectives: To assess the impact of digital media usage on psychiatric symptoms in an adolescent population utilizing a longitudinal cohort design.

Methods: Using two waves of the GUI child cohort, age 13 (N = 7527) and age 17/18 (N = 6126), we used latent class analysis (LCA) to create latent groups centred around self-reported time spent online, and the self-reported behaviours children engaged with online. At both waves, the 4 class latent model suited best. We used the different symptoms scales of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaires (SDQ), self-reported, at age 17 as our outcome variable. Using linear regression analysis, we then examined the associations between our latent class model and psychiatric symptoms, using moderate usage as our reference group, with adjustments being made for baseline psychiatric symptoms, maternal education and pre-diagnosed mental disorder.

Results: For females, placement in the high usage group at 13 was associated with increased internalizing symptoms, whereas placement in the high usage group at 17 was associated with an increase in all symptoms. For males, placement in the high usage group at 17 was associated with increased emotional symptoms, and placement in the “low usage & behaviour engagement” group, a group showing low reported time online and low engagement in our measured online behaviours at 17, was associated with an increase in all symptoms. Finally for both sexes, placement in the “moderate usage, entertainment only” group at age 13, (a group reporting no school-based online engagement), was associated with increases in all symptoms except emotional symptoms.

Conclusion: High digital media usage is associated with increased psychiatric symptoms in both males and females, with moderate usage associated with positive effects on symptoms compared to both our high usage, and low usage groups.

– 2021. Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2021). The (Unequal) Interplay between Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills in Early Educational Attainment, American Behavioral Scientist. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764221996764

Abstract: Cognitive and noncognitive skills are key indicators of educational success and merit. However, even when accounting for inequalities in skill formation by family socioeconomic status (SES), a wide SES-gap in college enrolment remains. According to the compensatory advantage hypothesis, SES-gaps in educational transitions are largest among cognitively weak students, but little is known on mechanisms. It has long been argued that noncognitive traits such as effort and motivation might be at least as important as cognitive skills over the status-attainment process, and these skills might interact by being complements or substitutes. Thus, I test whether advantaged students substitute low cognitive skills in test scores by high returns to conscientiousness—rated by teachers— in the transition to academic secondary schools. I draw data from the German National Educational Panel Study to study a cohort of students from Grades 1 to 5, when early tracking is enforced. I estimate linear probability models with school fixed-effects and moderation. To account for measurement error, I also use composite latent skills across elementary education. I report three main findings: (a) High-SES students at the same level of cognitive and noncognitive skills than low-SES schoolmates are more likely to attend the academic track bridged to college; (b) in line with the compensatory hypothesis, these SES-inequalities are largest among low cognitive performers; (3) cognitively weak students from high-SES families get the highest educational returns to conscientiousness in comparison to high cognitive performers or low-SES peers, validating the skill substitution hypothesis. These findings challenge the liberal conception of merit as the sum of ability plus effort in assessing equal opportunity in education.

– 2021. Bernardi, F., and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2021). The Social-Origins Gap in Labour Market Outcomes: Compensatory and Boosting Advantages Using a Micro-Class Approach, European Sociological Review. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcaa034 *Runner-up for the European Sociological Review Best Article of the Year Award (2022)

Abstract: Recent studies document a social-origins gap or direct effect of social origin (DESO) on labour market outcomes over and above respondents’ education, challenging the idea that post-industrial societies are education-based meritocracies. Yet, the literature offers insufficient explanations on DESO heterogeneity across education and different labour market outcomes. Little is also known about underlying mechanisms. We contribute by answering two questions: (i) How does DESO vary when comparing college-degree holders with non-holders? (ii) For which specific parental and children’s occupations is the largest DESO observed? We focus on Spain, using a large new dataset (n = 144,286). Firstly, we find a larger DESO on socioeconomic status among non-degree holders, and on income among degree holders. We propose the notions of compensatory advantage in occupational attainment and boosting advantage in income for high social-origin individuals to explain these opposite patterns, drawing from ‘downward mobility avoidance’ and ‘effectively maintained inequality’ theories. Secondly, we map origin and destination micro-classes where DESO is largest. High-grade managerial and professional parental occupations, characterized by social closure and influence in large organizations, are the origin micro-classes exerting the largest DESO. We also find that compensatory advantage for low-educated children from advantaged origins is related to their higher chances of accessing managerial occupations, while boosting advantage on income among college graduates is observed for high-grade managers and liberal professionals, suggesting that micro-class reproduction may partially account for boosting advantage. We conclude by discussing the generalizability of our findings to other countries and their implications for research on DESO, meritocracy and social mobility.

– 2019. Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2019). Do Well-off Families Compensate for Low Cognitive Ability? Evidence on Social Inequality in Early Schooling from a Twin Study, Sociology of Education, 92(2):150-175. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038040719830698

Abstract: This article bridges the literature on educational inequality between and within families to test whether high–socioeconomic status (SES) families compensate for low cognitive ability in the transition to secondary education in Germany. The German educational system of early-ability tracking (at age 10) represents a stringent setting for the compensatory hypothesis. Overall, previous literature offers inconclusive findings. Previous research between families suffers from the misspecification of parental SES and ability, while most within-family research did not stratify the analysis by SES or the ability distribution. To address these issues, I draw from the TwinLife study to implement a twin fixed-effects design that minimizes unobserved confounding. I report two main findings. First, highly educated families do not compensate for twins’ differences in cognitive ability at the bottom of the ability distribution. In the German system of early-ability tracking, advantaged families may have more difficulties to compensate than in countries where educational transitions are less dependent on ability. Second, holding parents’ and children’s cognitive ability constant, pupils from highly educated families are 27% more likely to attend the academic track. This result implies wastage of academic potential for disadvantaged families, challenging the role of cognitive ability as the leading criterion of merit for liberal theories of equal opportunity. These findings point to the importance of other factors that vary between families with different resources and explain educational success, such as noncognitive abilities, risk aversion to downward mobility, and teachers’ bias.

– 2018. Gil-Hernández, C.J., and Gracia, P. (2018). Adolescents’ educational aspirations and ethnic background: The case of students of African and Latin American migrant origins in Spain. Demographic Research, 38(23):577-618. https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.23; *Replication package

Abstract:

Background: Minority students were found to have high educational aspirations, considering their background characteristics. This finding is often attributed to 'migrant optimism.' Yet, whether socioeconomic, educational, or demographic differences between and within ethnic groups mediate and/or moderate students' educational aspirations remains an inconclusive question.

Objective: This study investigates the educational aspirations of children of African and Latin American migrants in Spain, looking at four critical factors: (1) family background, (2) educational performance, (3) years lived in Spain, and (4) language used at home.

Methods: Data comes from the 2010 General Evaluation of Educational Diagnostic (GEED) on lower-secondary students aged 14 (n = 19,293), on average. Multivariate logistic models are applied using mediation and moderation analyses.

Results: Results show that (1) minority students have higher college aspirations than students of Spanish origin after accounting for parental socioeconomic status and educational performance; (2) ethnic differentials in aspirations – especially for pupils with Latin American origin – are concentrated among low-performing and disadvantaged students; (3) recent arrival in Spain is not significantly associated with differences in educational aspirations within minority groups; (4) speaking Spanish at home does not lead to differences in aspirations for pupils of African origin.

Conclusions: Migrant optimism, as opposed to family language use and years of contact with the Spanish culture and society, seems to be an important factor for the high (net) educational aspirations of students from African and Latin American backgrounds.

Contribution: The article provides new evidence on ethnic heterogeneity in educational aspirations, being the first that uses representative data from the whole Spanish educational system.

– 2017. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Marqués-Perales, and I., Fachelli, S. (2017). Intergenerational Social Mobility in Spain between 1956 and 2011: The Role of Educational Expansion and Economic Modernization in a Late Industrialized Country. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. 51:14-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2017.06.002

Abstract: This article explores intergenerational class mobility patterns and the role played by education in Spain using counterfactuals. Both men and women born from 1926 to 1981 are analysed, meaning the study covers a period of profound economic and educational advances in a late-industrialised country. The results suggest that, among the cohorts born in the 1970s, men have experienced a slight increase in social fluidity, while women have experienced a substantial increase that seems partially driven by their massively increased access to routine non-manual positions independent of their social origins. Inequality of educational opportunities and class returns to education have declined, whereas the direct effect of social origins (DESO) has remained constant for men and has decreased considerably for women. The counterfactual analysis shows that the slight increase in social fluidity for men is mainly driven by educational expansion. For women, the DESO and educational expansion account for a great share of increasing fluidity. Therefore, certain assumptions made by the Modernization Theory and Goldthorpe’s Theory of Social Mobility can be put into question.

– 2015. Marqués Perales, I., and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2015). Social Origins and Over-Education of Spanish University Graduates: Is Access to the Service Class Merit-Based? Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas (REIS), 150: 89-112. http://dx.doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.150.89

Abstract: This article analyses the impact of social background on the probability of over-education in a cohort of Spanish university graduates born in the 1970's and graduating in 1999/2000, based on the 2005 Reflex survey. The influence of three resources associated to social origins (cultural, social and economic capital) is evaluated in order to challenge one of the pillars of the modernization theory: the merit-based selection. Our results reveal that, even when controlling for field of study, occupational experience and average grade, both cultural and social capital exert an effect on the risk of over-education in Spain, but economic capital does not. Moreover, we conclude that the direct effect of social origins on over-education is not significantly mediated by a field of study choice dependent on social origins.

Book Chapters

– 2024. Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2024). “Estratificación social y meritocracia: selección, legitimación y (des)igualdad” [Social Stratification and Meritocracy: Selection, Legitimation, and (In)Equality]. En B. León, J. Carbonell yJ. Soria (eds.), La desigualdad en España [Inequality in Spain], Lengua de Trapo y Círculo de Bellas Artes, Madrid, pp. 115-140. https://www.circulobellasartes.com/libros/la-desigualdad-en-espana/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/380752873_Estratificacion_social_y_meritocracia_seleccion_legitimacion_y_desigualdad

– 2023. Bernardi, F., and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2023). “Capítulo 2. Desigualdades en movilidad social” [Inequalities in social mobility]. In Bernardi, Fabrizio y Juan Ignacio Martínez Pastor (eds., 2023): Desigualdades sociales [Social inequalities]. UNED: Madrid. https://www.librosuned.com/LU31430/Desigualdades-sociales(P).aspx

– 2023. Passaretta, G., and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2023). The Early Roots of the Digital Divide: Socioeconomic Inequality in Children’s ICT Literacy from Primary to Secondary Schooling, In: Skopek, J. (Eds.), Research Handbook of Digital Sociology. Edward Elgar (Cheltenham, UK). https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906769.00026

– 2021. Bernardi, F., and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2021). “La estratificación social del riesgo de contagio y mortalidad por la COVID-19” [Social Stratification of Infection and Mortality Risk by COVID-19]. In: Salido, O., and Massó, M. (Eds): Sociología en tiempos de pandemia. Impactos y desafíos sociales de la crisis del COVID-19 [Sociology in Times of Pandemics]. Madrid: Marcial Pons. https://www.marcialpons.es/libros/sociologia-en-tiempos-de-pandemia/9788413812892/

– 2020. Bernardi, F., and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2020). La Brecha de Clase en España: Micro-clases y Mecanismos. [The Class Gap in Spain: Micro-classes and Mechanisms]. In: Salido, O., and Fachelli, S. (Eds.): Perspectivas y fronteras en el estudio de la desigualdad social: movilidad social y clases sociales en tiempos de cambio [Perspectives and Borders in the Study of Social Inequality: Social Mobility and Social Classes in Times of Change]. Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas. https://libreria.cis.es/libros/perspectivas-y-fronteras-en-el-estudio-de-la-desigualdad-social-movilidad-social-y-clases-sociales-en-tiempos-de-cambio/9788474768336/

– 2020. Gil-Hernández, C.J., Bernardi, F., and Luijkx, R. (2020). Intergenerational Social Mobility in Spain’s Twentieth Century: Social Fluidity without Educational Equalization? In R. Breen and W. Müller (Eds.), Education and Intergenerational Social Mobility in Europe and the United States. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press. https://stanford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.11126/stanford/9781503610163.001.0001/upso-9781503610163-chapter-010

– 2015. Marqués Perales, I. and Gil-Hernández, C.J. (2015). “La sociedad abierta y sus enemigos” [The Open Society and Its Enemies], In: Ildefonso Marqués Perales (Eds.) (2015), La movilidad social en España [Social Mobility in Spain]. Madrid: La Catarata, 106-197. https://www.catarata.org/libro/la-movilidad-social-en-espana_45189/; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275655118_La_Sociedad_Abierta_y_sus_Enemigos

Software & Data

– 2026. Vignoli, D., Brini, E., Guetto, R., Alderotti, G., Ballerini, A., Cozzani, M., Gallo, A., Gil-Hernández, C. J., Morabito, M. F., Pirani, E., Soldati, D., Tata, F., & Tocchioni, V. (2026). Data Resource Profile: The Age-It Family Demography Survey (Age-It FDS). International Journal of Population Data Science, 8(6), 3411. https://doi.org/10.23889/ijpds.v8i6.3411

– 2023. Cimentada J., Vidal-Lorda G., Gil-Hernández C.J., Smallenbroek O. (2023). DIGCLASS: A package to translate between occupational classes in R. Currently translate ISCO68/88/08 to dozens of occupational classes. R package version 0.0.3, https://cimentadaj.github.io/DIGCLASS/index.html

– 2023. Carlos J. Gil Hernández; Leire Salazar; Jonatan Castaño Muñoz; Irene Pañeda-Fernandez (2023): Teacher’s Bias Dataset: A Factorial Survey Experiment. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/f14f5209-f032-4218-a89a-4643143809af